By Milind Selote,
We are going to begin the latest breaking news figures that are coming in on corona active cases in the India ,well this is the latest that has been released by the ICMR and right now Corona active cases in the country stand at 633.
so,let us discuss here ,Fight Against Covid19: Where does India Stand ?
now this is in addition to a whopping 90 new cases that were recorded positive in Kerala for coronavirus deaths.This has been reported now in the last 24 hours taking the total to 16 in the country in the title of Covid19.
coronavirus updates(ALL OVER THE WORLD)
We are going to begin the latest breaking news figures that are coming in on corona active cases in the India ,well this is the latest that has been released by the ICMR and right now Corona active cases in the country stand at 633.
so,let us discuss here ,Fight Against Covid19: Where does India Stand ?
now this is in addition to a whopping 90 new cases that were recorded positive in Kerala for coronavirus deaths.This has been reported now in the last 24 hours taking the total to 16 in the country in the title of Covid19.
https://science008.blogspot.com/2020/04/artical-on-science-and-technology.html
coronavirus updates(ALL OVER THE WORLD)
lockdown country
Confirmed cases
1,930,780
Deaths
120,450
Recovered
409,995
(AS ON 14 APRIL 2020)
Fight Against Covid19: Where does India Stand ?
we've had 19 Corona positive cases being reported from Kerala today which is taken the number Micah said to 633 now before we break this news I would like to tell our viewers that this is just precautionary the Army is on standby ready for civil medical aid to deal with covert 19 with number of coronavirus positive cases rising the Indian Army is on a war footing to set up more quarantine centers for their own personnel and also extend its medical infrastructure for civilians.
https://science008.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-pandemic-world.html
The Army is prepared
to extend its network of hospitals ,its laboratories to assist the civil
administration but one has to reiterate that this is only precautionary there
is no need for the army to step in right now but the Army is prepared to step
in all right so let's move on we talked
right on the beginning of to the point on the import of numbers what
India is looking at right now is 633 active Corona positive cases.
I want now to take our viewers to look at
where India actually stands globally , India has been the first country ever to
announce a lockdown and just 500 cases we went into a complete lockdown at 500 cases
even China didn't do that do.
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| coronavirus |
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| big war https://science008.blogspot.com/2020/04/artical-on-science-and-technology.html |
Wehave an advantage where do we stand on the
global scale what has been the rise in each state let's say since March 1st
or March 10th to March 26th this is the full report there are five look at it locked
down rocked in as a country of 1.3 billion literally shuts down hoping to tried
the world's biggest health emergency with minimum fatalities.
This is where India stands globally on the coronavirus curve in number of positive cases when each country imposed a lockdown India imposed a lockdown with 500 cases regard in any country even China what India has going for it the lockdown has been imposed much earlier than many countries travel restrictions came in.
https://science008.blogspot.com/2020/04/artical-on-science-and-technology.html
Well, in time,
compared to other countries many states individually shut off access to public
spaces on their own. India does the same thing breaks down the problem puts in
place the measures that are needed both surveillance and health care measures
and does that systematically.
This is where India stands globally on the coronavirus curve in number of positive cases when each country imposed a lockdown India imposed a lockdown with 500 cases regard in any country even China what India has going for it the lockdown has been imposed much earlier than many countries travel restrictions came in.
https://science008.blogspot.com/2020/04/artical-on-science-and-technology.html
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| lockdown |
Then there is a way out, there is a transition
from lock downs into a public health driven response in which people don't have
to stay locked in their homes for more time than is absolutely necessary the
real test for India in its fight against COVID19.
https://science008.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-pandemic-world.html
https://science008.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-pandemic-world.html
It has just begun officially
in stage 2 ,local transmission the country standing on the precipice of stage 3
community transfer from 10th March to the 26th March. This has been India's corona
curve India had 54 cases on March 10th which have risen to 656 cases on March
26th state wise in just a fortnight the rise in cases could be deemed alarming
Karnataka from 4 has touched 55 Rajasthan jumped from 3 cases recorded on March
10th to 40 Corona positive cases on 26th March,
Delhi has risen from 5 cases on the trend
March to 36 cases on the 26th March, Kerala has seen a huge surge from 11 cases
on March 10th to 180 on March 26th .
Gujarat had no cases (zero cases) on March 10th and now stands at 43 Maharashtra jumped to 225 cases in about a fortnight and these are numbers recorded when India is being criticized for limited testing.
Gujarat had no cases (zero cases) on March 10th and now stands at 43 Maharashtra jumped to 225 cases in about a fortnight and these are numbers recorded when India is being criticized for limited testing.
India standing on
the corona curve, we showed you state wise on how certain states have actually
seen an exponential rise where the numbers in India concern we had just five Corona
positive cases on the 10th of March ,we are standing right now at 633 so in about
a fortnight we have recorded over 628 cases.
According to Dr.
David Nabarro who is the w-h-o special envoy for covid 19 talked on question
like as India's announced a complete lockdown it was the first country to
actually go into lockdown with just 500 cases, now do you think we did it at
the right time or do you think as a country with India with a population of 1.3
billion it was a littile bit late,
He replied, he want
to stress that as far as we understand the transmission in India is at a much
earlier stage than it is in Europe and the US, he think it's great that
decision.The action has been taken in line with the recommendations of the
World Health Organization by the government and people of India
but he do want to stress you have to have as well as the lockdown very good quality community level public health services you have to also protect your health workers as much as possible.
the lockdown alone will be important but you need the other pieces of the comprehensive response as .
but he do want to stress you have to have as well as the lockdown very good quality community level public health services you have to also protect your health workers as much as possible.
the lockdown alone will be important but you need the other pieces of the comprehensive response as .
It had five cases
around the 1st of March,we had about 11 cases today ,According to report we stand
at 633 cases now they've mentioned before the speed of the pandemic is thought
to be doubling in size at about 2.5 days.
Now it increases Eightfold in a week to 50
fold in three weeks and of course a thousand fold with what in four weeks as he
said, we have over 600 cases & we have reported 16 deaths already ,
we've seen for that in the last 24 hours at which stage do you think India stands now I think that there will be increases in other countries but the fact that the government took very rapid action given the stage of the outbreak in India and the fact that you have all to try to make sure.
you've got this community preparedness makes me feel more optimistic than if India had waited a further week or two this speed of increase ,that's a worrying feature of this particular outbreak and the need for very decisive and firm action right at the beginning
and I believe that what India has done is in line with what the World Health Organization wants provided, we recognize that it's several elements it's restricting the degree to which people have opportunities to be close to each other and at the same time having a strong community-based Public Health Service to back it up together with hospitals ready to receive cases.
I believe it is in the capacity of
the people of India to bring this rapid rise quickly to a reduction and then to
a halt so that the outbreaks are contained and then suppressed in your country
but it will require efforts by every single citizen ,
what we've learnt is that if there are disputes between different administrations or if there are uncertainties about what to do then the virus finds its way in and causes all sorts of trouble so this very clear direction and a very good uptake of the guidance .
we've seen for that in the last 24 hours at which stage do you think India stands now I think that there will be increases in other countries but the fact that the government took very rapid action given the stage of the outbreak in India and the fact that you have all to try to make sure.
you've got this community preparedness makes me feel more optimistic than if India had waited a further week or two this speed of increase ,that's a worrying feature of this particular outbreak and the need for very decisive and firm action right at the beginning
and I believe that what India has done is in line with what the World Health Organization wants provided, we recognize that it's several elements it's restricting the degree to which people have opportunities to be close to each other and at the same time having a strong community-based Public Health Service to back it up together with hospitals ready to receive cases.
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| During lockdown fallowing social distancing. |
what we've learnt is that if there are disputes between different administrations or if there are uncertainties about what to do then the virus finds its way in and causes all sorts of trouble so this very clear direction and a very good uptake of the guidance .
All over the country is really excellent but please keep it up don't
let up maintain the control strategies you have in place until you are 100%
confident that you're able to protect the citizens against this virus because
even if you get a current outbreak and pandemic down this virus will still be
with us and we need to be on guard and defending ourselves with higher alert
for the foreseeable future all right .
Can we contain the virus before we actually get into stage three or do you
think in a country like India that's inevitable is bound to happen?
But we need to control that and this is the key point we're asking citizens everywhere to change the way in which they behave we're asking public health services everywhere to be on high alert .
we're asking hospitals to get ready even when there may not be much virus moving in the community and that's the right thing to do because the sooner you can get on top of these outbreaks and contain them and then suppress the transmission of the virus the less likely you are to end up with an explosive situation like we have in parts of Europe.
Right now, leaders are saying well perhaps we should have acted earlier but now I think India can learn from the Europe ,example can also taken from China and South Korea and really showed the world how you can keep a huge population safe in the face of this threat appreciate.
Eventually, when we think about community spread stage 3, he seems to suggest that it is inevitable but it is for us to actually contain that cluster break because even let's look at what's happening in certain areas.
If you look at say Hyderabad in telangana ,Hyderabad is recording more than 50% of what their land Ghana's recording more than 50% of what Rajasthan is recording you know if you look at these clusters Gossard were recording pretty much you know quite a big chunk of what Kerala is recording good evening .
https://science008.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-pandemic-world.html
I think the distribution pan for India will be in different hotspots so you may find certain states in certain areas where the infection has spread and then further percolated down from person to person varying from region to region so the initial stage was of containment which we are still persisting with then is of course mitigation and then suppression now separation means lockdown.
So, I think this was an appropriate step at an appropriate time , there'll be a lot of patients who are asymptomatic carriers who would have perhaps transmitted it into the community,
so the contact tracing still has to continue every report worldwide has shown with lockdown.
You have to continue to do the public health surveillance so I think India is doing both it's early days in the 21 days but, I think this is just the beginning of our fight against Corona hopefully.
we should be able to have much lesser numbers than many other countries in terms of mortality and morbidity all right well let's hope that happens there.
Question which arise in my mind, is stage 3 inevitable for India right now
possibly but let me just add on to what Dr. Nabarro said by the way he spoke like a true public official like a leader he infused optimism in all of us and the grass that I have with me
today illustrates in some ways his optimism so you see three graphs over here you see the Italian grass you see the Chinese grass and sorry you see four actually two graphs are kind of merging into each other you see the South Korean grass and you see the Indian graph
I'm not sure whether it was intentional or not but there were four words that caught my eye or at least and he said the tremendous spread of disease so there are two things you look at you look at the extent of the disease and you look at the rate of change the rate at which it is going up he did express about it so route of the way our government has acted while we need to support all the actions.the government has taken but let us not be lulled into a false sense of security and of course in all fairness he did emphasize that towards the end there is an issue of concern the rate of increase as you yourself pointed out.
State of Gujarat on the 11th of or the 10th of March it had zero cases it's already over 30 we've had cases practically doubling in Kerala ,you know Maharashtra has seen similar cases so is that a huge cause for concern or do you think that is possibly the trajectory of the epidemic in India and hopefully will flatten the curve yeah I think this is a normal
progression off of a pandemic and indeed this pandemic in which a lot of infection would already have been there from person to person so movie tests war or top-line numbers will get as thetotal number of positive cases diagnosed with COVID 19 but the more important thing is if we can continue the testing continue the contact tracing I think the contact tracing is a very difficult job but the most important thing to do.
As far as public health surveillance is concerned and in the lower end if we can keep the mortality at the least, I think then we will win this war against covert so it's just initial few days of the three weeks period
we can't lead we cannot be complacent and we can't be lacks so all our combined efforts we have to continue to do we also have to keep in mind to build up a contingency which the government is doing in case there is a delusion avalanche of patients how do we manage them at that stage so I am sure there will be multiple factors working together at the same time in government agencies to keep all plans ready and use in place.
All the good and responsible people on the front line who are putting their lives at risk we need to support our government it's not an easy decision for them to make it's a series of very tough decisions that they're going to make.
What happened in Korea you see what happened in Italy and you see what happened in India now these colors represent the points at which knockdowns occurred so China very early in lockdown and then the rate is going down this peak might appear like an aberration but there is a reason for it
But we need to control that and this is the key point we're asking citizens everywhere to change the way in which they behave we're asking public health services everywhere to be on high alert .
we're asking hospitals to get ready even when there may not be much virus moving in the community and that's the right thing to do because the sooner you can get on top of these outbreaks and contain them and then suppress the transmission of the virus the less likely you are to end up with an explosive situation like we have in parts of Europe.
Right now, leaders are saying well perhaps we should have acted earlier but now I think India can learn from the Europe ,example can also taken from China and South Korea and really showed the world how you can keep a huge population safe in the face of this threat appreciate.
Eventually, when we think about community spread stage 3, he seems to suggest that it is inevitable but it is for us to actually contain that cluster break because even let's look at what's happening in certain areas.
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| Pandemic coronavirus |
If you look at say Hyderabad in telangana ,Hyderabad is recording more than 50% of what their land Ghana's recording more than 50% of what Rajasthan is recording you know if you look at these clusters Gossard were recording pretty much you know quite a big chunk of what Kerala is recording good evening .
https://science008.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-pandemic-world.html
I think the distribution pan for India will be in different hotspots so you may find certain states in certain areas where the infection has spread and then further percolated down from person to person varying from region to region so the initial stage was of containment which we are still persisting with then is of course mitigation and then suppression now separation means lockdown.
So, I think this was an appropriate step at an appropriate time , there'll be a lot of patients who are asymptomatic carriers who would have perhaps transmitted it into the community,
so the contact tracing still has to continue every report worldwide has shown with lockdown.
You have to continue to do the public health surveillance so I think India is doing both it's early days in the 21 days but, I think this is just the beginning of our fight against Corona hopefully.
we should be able to have much lesser numbers than many other countries in terms of mortality and morbidity all right well let's hope that happens there.
Question which arise in my mind, is stage 3 inevitable for India right now
possibly but let me just add on to what Dr. Nabarro said by the way he spoke like a true public official like a leader he infused optimism in all of us and the grass that I have with me
today illustrates in some ways his optimism so you see three graphs over here you see the Italian grass you see the Chinese grass and sorry you see four actually two graphs are kind of merging into each other you see the South Korean grass and you see the Indian graph
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| social distancing shown |
I'm not sure whether it was intentional or not but there were four words that caught my eye or at least and he said the tremendous spread of disease so there are two things you look at you look at the extent of the disease and you look at the rate of change the rate at which it is going up he did express about it so route of the way our government has acted while we need to support all the actions.the government has taken but let us not be lulled into a false sense of security and of course in all fairness he did emphasize that towards the end there is an issue of concern the rate of increase as you yourself pointed out.
State of Gujarat on the 11th of or the 10th of March it had zero cases it's already over 30 we've had cases practically doubling in Kerala ,you know Maharashtra has seen similar cases so is that a huge cause for concern or do you think that is possibly the trajectory of the epidemic in India and hopefully will flatten the curve yeah I think this is a normal
progression off of a pandemic and indeed this pandemic in which a lot of infection would already have been there from person to person so movie tests war or top-line numbers will get as thetotal number of positive cases diagnosed with COVID 19 but the more important thing is if we can continue the testing continue the contact tracing I think the contact tracing is a very difficult job but the most important thing to do.
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| 80% deaths in US are of 65 and up |
As far as public health surveillance is concerned and in the lower end if we can keep the mortality at the least, I think then we will win this war against covert so it's just initial few days of the three weeks period
we can't lead we cannot be complacent and we can't be lacks so all our combined efforts we have to continue to do we also have to keep in mind to build up a contingency which the government is doing in case there is a delusion avalanche of patients how do we manage them at that stage so I am sure there will be multiple factors working together at the same time in government agencies to keep all plans ready and use in place.
All the good and responsible people on the front line who are putting their lives at risk we need to support our government it's not an easy decision for them to make it's a series of very tough decisions that they're going to make.
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| big war |
China earlier was under diagnosing patients for whatever reason they had and when the w-h-o pointed it out the changed their criteria and so this spike is actually due to a change in criteria of making a diagnosis and your is what you see India has done your is what you see Italy.
Italy came late into the act we've come in much before at an earlier stage came at five thousand okay but there's something else again and we need to learn to read between the lines yes South Korea and what South Korea did not get into lockdown, of course it's a small country & its geography ,its demographics are very different from ours.
Thank you.
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